Russia Isn't Negotiating. It's Preparing.
Moscow's relentless winter campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure isn't a negotiating tactic—it's battlefield preparation. The timing is deliberate. Strikes cluster around diplomatic windows: before the Alaska summit, during Abu Dhabi talks, and before every international pressure point. Anyone who's worked in military planning knows what this means. Russia is degrading Ukrainian civilian resilience while maintaining plausible deniability about peace talks. The math doesn't work for a near-term settlement. It works for a spring offensive.
Why the Peace Talks Are Theater
Ukraine's negotiators aren't naive. Igor Novikov, former adviser to Zelenskyy, put it plainly: "The war can only end under two circumstances—Russia decides it wants the war to end, or enough pressure is placed on Moscow to force that decision." Neither condition exists. Russia faces no military pressure that would force negotiation. The West provides weapons but won't commit to the escalation that would actually change Moscow's calculus. And Ukraine, correctly, refuses to trade territory for a ceasefire that Moscow will violate.
Oleksandr Khara, head of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, offered a sharper observation: "Real talks would require genuine Russian will for negotiations." He also noted that "Ukraine does not have allies—it has partners." That distinction matters. Partners provide aid. Allies provide commitment. Ukraine has the former, not the latter. The Abu Dhabi talks in January 2026 proceeded while Russian drones struck Kyiv. That's not negotiation. That's messaging.
The Pattern Moscow Isn't Hiding
Start with the timeline. April 2025: sustained drone attacks on Kyiv. June 2025: Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb damages over 40 Russian bombers—a significant blow to Moscow's air fleet. August 2025: Trump-Putin summit in Alaska produces nothing. Late 2025: Russian attacks intensify, specifically targeting energy infrastructure as winter deepens. January 2026: massive drone strike during peace negotiations.
This is textbook battlefield shaping. You saturate air defenses. You degrade civilian morale. You destroy infrastructure the defending force will need. Then you attack. We saw this playbook in Syria. We saw it in Chechnya. The question isn't whether Russia is preparing for escalation—it's which axis.
The infrastructure targeting is particularly telling. Moscow isn't destroying randomly. It's systematically degrading power generation while preserving transportation networks and military assets. That's occupation planning, not destruction for its own sake. If Russia wanted to annihilate Ukraine, it would target different things. Instead, it's preparing the territory for control.
What's Actually at Stake
The broader geopolitical environment amplifies the risk. Israel and Hamas cycle through conflict and ceasefire attempts. China and the US intensify competition over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Regional powers expand military capabilities. In this environment, a major escalation in Ukraine doesn't happen in isolation. It signals something about the global order: that the West won't enforce its commitments, that territorial conquest is negotiable, that nuclear-armed states can act with impunity.
That's why Khara's comment about "partners, not allies" cuts so deep. It's not bitterness. It's clarity about the actual security architecture. Ukraine is fighting for its survival against a nuclear power. It's receiving aid from countries that won't risk direct confrontation. That asymmetry is the real story, not the diplomatic theater in Abu Dhabi.
What to Watch
The next 72 days matter more than the next 72 hours. If Russia follows the Syria-Chechnya playbook, ground operations intensify after infrastructure prep reaches a certain threshold. Monitor Ukrainian force positioning. Watch for Russian airborne unit movements. Pay attention to which infrastructure Moscow targets next—the pattern will reveal the intended offensive axis.
The peace talks will continue. They serve a purpose: they give the West political cover, they buy Ukraine time to prepare, and they signal to Moscow that negotiation remains theoretically possible. But everyone in the room knows what's actually happening. Russia is preparing. Ukraine is preparing. The West is hoping something changes before spring.
It won't. Not without a fundamental shift in Western commitment or a decisive change in the military balance. Expect the conflict to persist through spring 2026 and beyond. The war doesn't end because diplomats meet in Abu Dhabi. It ends when one side can no longer sustain the fight or when the cost of continuing exceeds the value of the objective. Moscow hasn't reached that point. Neither has Ukraine. We're in the middle of this, not the end.
Resources
Military Strategy and Conflict Analysis: Russia-Ukraine War – Understanding battlefield preparation tactics and military planning methodologies is essential for analyzing how Russia's infrastructure targeting aligns with historical offensive patterns.
Geopolitical Strategy and Great Power Competition – Readers interested in how regional conflicts reflect broader shifts in the global order will benefit from understanding the strategic frameworks that govern state behavior in contested zones.
Related: Russia's Diplomacy Deception: Four Years of Failed Negotiations