How We Got Here: Four Years of Failed Negotiations
While diplomats talked peace in Abu Dhabi, Russian missiles were already in the air toward Kyiv. On January 24-25, 2026, US officials brought Ukrainian, Russian, and Emirati representatives to the table for what amounted to the fourth major peace initiative since Russia's 2022 invasion. By January 25, the talks had collapsed. By that same evening, Russia had launched over 100 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities. This is how Russia negotiates.
The war is now four years old. Russian forces have systematically destroyed Ukraine's energy infrastructure through winter, leaving millions without power in brutal cold. Kyiv is dark most nights. Hospitals run on generators. Civilians die from cold in basements. Yet the diplomatic machinery keeps grinding forward—each failure met with calls for the next round of talks, each round preceded or followed by Russian strikes that make the previous round's optimism look absurd.
This pattern is not new. Russia used identical tactics in Syria—negotiate in Geneva, bomb in Aleppo, repeat. The West treated these as separate stories: diplomacy on one page, military ops on another. They were the same story. Moscow was buying time while its military repositioned. The talks bought legitimacy. The bombs bought territory.
The Pattern: Diplomacy While Bombing
The Russia-Ukraine war began with a full-scale invasion in February 2022. What followed was not a quick victory but a grinding attrition campaign that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. Throughout 2024 and into 2025, Russian forces intensified attacks on critical energy infrastructure—power plants, substations, transmission lines. The strategy is clear: break civilian morale through winter suffering, then negotiate from a position of perceived strength.
Multiple rounds of peace negotiations have occurred in Istanbul, Geneva, and now Abu Dhabi. Each time, fundamental disagreements over territory, security guarantees, and ceasefire conditions have derailed progress. Each time, Russia has continued military operations. Limited prisoner exchanges have happened. No comprehensive peace agreement has materialized. The math doesn't work because Russia isn't trying to make it work.
The January 2026 timeline is instructive:
- February 2022: Full-scale Russian invasion begins.
- Winter 2025-2026: Russia intensifies infrastructure strikes, causing massive power outages across Ukraine.
- January 24-25, 2026: US-brokered peace talks convene in Abu Dhabi with Ukrainian, Russian, US, and UAE officials.
- January 24-25, 2026 (simultaneous): Russia launches over 100 drones and missiles targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
- January 25, 2026: Talks end without breakthrough. Ukrainian officials express skepticism about Russian commitment to peace.
The simultaneity matters. Russia didn't wait for talks to conclude. It didn't even wait for talks to begin. The message was unmistakable: we're not here to negotiate. We're here to appear reasonable while we continue the war.
What Ukraine Actually Thinks (Spoiler: Not Optimistic)
Ukrainian officials have been blunt about their assessment. Igor Novikov, a Ukrainian negotiator, stated: "I don't think the war ends tomorrow. Any conversation to end the war is better than silence, but I am not optimistic in the short term." [CITATION NEEDED: Verify source and exact quote]
This is not defeatism. It's realism. Ukrainian leadership understands that Russia's current strategy focuses on attrition, not negotiation. As one Ukrainian official put it: "The war can only end under two circumstances: Russia decides to end it, or enough pressure is placed on Moscow to force that decision." [CITATION NEEDED: Verify source and exact quote] Neither condition exists today.
Oleksandr Khara, another Ukrainian official, emphasized the stakes: "Ukraine does not have allies—it has partners." [CITATION NEEDED: Verify source and exact quote] Translation: Don't expect anyone to fight this war for us. We'll do it ourselves, but we need weapons and security guarantees. Russia understands this. That's why it keeps bombing. It's testing whether Western support will crack under winter pressure.
The civilian toll shapes this calculation. Ukrainians are exhausted. They want the war to end. But they also understand that a negotiated settlement on Russia's terms—territorial concessions, security guarantees stripped away, NATO membership permanently off the table—would simply reset the clock for the next Russian invasion in five or ten years. They've seen this movie before. It ended badly in 2022.
Why This Matters: The Next 90 Days
Here's what to watch: Does Russia escalate ground operations in the next month? If it does, the Abu Dhabi talks were cover for military preparation. If it doesn't, Moscow might actually be considering a negotiated pause—though probably not a peace.
The pattern suggests escalation. Russia has launched major strikes during every peace talk since 2022. The timing isn't coincidental. It's signaling to its own military that negotiations are theater. It's telling Ukraine that military pressure continues regardless of diplomatic rhetoric. It's testing whether the West will keep supporting Ukraine if talks are happening.
This is textbook attrition warfare. Wear down the enemy through sustained pressure. Use diplomacy to manage international opinion and fracture Western unity. Continue military operations to maintain initiative. Repeat until the enemy breaks or the West loses interest.
Unless the international community understands what's actually happening—that this isn't diplomacy with military backdrop, but military strategy with diplomatic cover—Ukraine will be fighting this war in 2028. And Russia will still be bombing power plants in winter.
Resources
The Russian Way of War: How Moscow Fights – Provides essential context on Russia's historical use of attrition strategy and how it applies to the current Ukraine conflict.
Negotiating with Adversaries: Lessons from Failed Peace Talks – Offers insights into why diplomatic efforts fail when one party continues military operations simultaneously.
Related: Russia's attrition strategy hardens as Western sanctions tighten